J.D. Vance and the GOP's Bid to Beat Its Human Capital Problem
Quick thoughts on Trump's VP pick
The following short essay has gotten some attention on Twitter, so I wanted to preserve a lightly edited form in a more permanent location. To flesh the post out a bit, I’ve added a few notable replies and related thoughts in separate sections. I expect to continue using this format to port Twitter posts to Substack if it works well—as ever, I welcome feedback.
Quick take on Vance: Trump’s choice of him as vice president suggests that the GOP is looking to make an appeal to anti-woke Silicon Valley or finance types to fill the void left by the Republican Party's competency crisis.
Right now, there is tremendous asymmetry between the parties in policy positions. The Democrats have a massive bench of people whose traditional qualifications are through the roof. The Republicans simply don't, and historically Trump has been pretty repugnant to what Anatoly Karlin calls elite human capital. But you need to fill political appointments from somewhere.
The Thiel-adjacent wing is one of the few exceptions here, and it's expanding. You're seeing endorsements from, and overtures to, Elon Musk, the All-In Podcast guys, and Bill Ackman. Republicans offer a sort of Faustian bargain to ambitious anti-woke secular sorts: make your peace with the evangelicals, pander to social conservatism, and gain sway in a coalition crying out for policy competence. More than a few will take that bargain. People are drawn to power voids.
Vance is of that class. He's smart, ambitious, Thiel-aligned, and in tune with the online right. He's cynical enough to flip 180 degrees on a dime, and the Trump-populists are desperate enough for competence that they'll accept his flip. He knows more than almost anyone about the right's human capital problem. If I had to guess, I suspect that whatever he talks about, from day 1 that will be the problem he focuses most on solving.
The key trick anti-elite populism can always try to lean on is appealing to the portions of the elite who feel slighted by extant power structures. It’s a neat trick, if one can manage it.
All in all, his appointment makes me take seriously the possibility that Trump's second term will focus seriously on setting a policy foundation for the future versus just being cult-of-personality stuff.
Part of me wants to imagine I like who Vance is deep down, but I don't actually know who he is deep down.
I'm wary.
Worthwhile replies include:
Matt Yglesias: “This read of Vance as appealing primarily to businessmen radicalized against wokeness is much more correct than views of him as the harbinger of a new anti-capitalist GOP.”
Noah Smith: “Education polarization left the GOP without a competent elite, and now they're trying to figure out ways to rebuild.”
Mark Cuban: “SV always overestimates their impact. Trump won’t take the bait. But he is smart enough to take their money and influence in SV circles, while offering a policy here and there as bread crumbs. Bottom line, DJT will eat them up and spit them out.”
Corie Whalen: “I know the corporate community and the finance community aren’t one in the same, but reports suggest the Vance pick has CEO types worried since a lot of his economic policy proposals are actually to the left of many Democrats. It would be like the worst of Biden’s policies on steroids.”
VB Knives: “Anti-elite populism kind of unavoidably collapses from inability to attract high functioning staff. Have to draw from some other well than its natural adherents.”
For those who want to understand Vance more, the inimitable Matt Lakeman’s review of Hillbilly Elegy is an excellent place to start.
The end feels particularly relevant:
While reading the book, he came off as entirely earnest and honest to me, but when I checked his Wikipedia afterward, I felt a slight twinge of skepticism. I mean, it’s probably nothing… but within months of the book’s release, Vance got hired by a Peter Thiel-owned venture capital fund, then became a contributor at CNN, then opened his own Ohio-based non-profit, and is now publicly considering a Senate run as a Republican.
Once I read his Wiki, it dawned on me just how clean Vance comes off in his own story. In a tale packed with alcoholics, drug addicts, and philanderers, in a rough part of the country, Vance seems a little too good. He mentions occasionally underage drinking, and smoking pot a handful of times, but no hard drugs. He never once mentions women until he reaches his adulthood in the story. He yells at his eventual wife, but it’s excused by his bad upbringing. Maybe I’m being cynical, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if Vance left out some details just in case he ran for office one day.
So… take of that what you will.
You can also listen to the article below, thanks to Askwho Casts AI.
See also Ross Douthat’s wide-ranging New York Times interview with Vance from last month.
Someone pointed out to me via DM that Vance’s Wikipedia page has also been on quite a journey over the past couple of days. The start of his policy section yesterday:
The start of his policy section earlier today:
This isn’t terribly surprising; it’s inevitable that people will be more motivated to shape someone’s public image after a VP nomination. It’s still in flux, but worth keeping an eye on. Current as of writing:
This serves as a sort of follow-up to my article on the Republican Party last year. I don’t think this fundamentally alters any of the analysis around their human capital problem, but it does suggest ways they’re aiming to address that problem.
"He never once mentions women until he reaches his adulthood in the story.". He also mentions in his book that he played Magic the Gathering. So this tracks completely. (this is based on my personal experience as a Magic player)
One funny side effect of becoming suddenly more prominent as a republican; he was shortened in his Wikipedia page by a good 5-6".