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jonny's avatar

Trends in dynamic systems don't proceed in straight lines, though over short time horizons, they may appear to be that way. But it doesn't take a long journey back through history to see that things that look ascendant over a period of years in the past end up in decline, and things in decline end up ascending. It's not to say that this is always the case, but I would look more closely at past dynamics to see what early signs there were of counter-balancing trends. For example, while it may be true that millenials are trending progressive, zoomers are showing signs of a swing toward conservativism. That may be because millenials have grandparents who said racists things, but zoomers do not. For zoomers, racism is abstract and hypothetical. But they see rise (and shocking justification of) crime and disorder, and a breakdown of social trust. To them and their predecessors, anti-racism may feel bizarre, stodgy, and inadequate to address the needs of the time, and they find themselves open to other approaches. If things get worse relative to the past, it would not be surprising at all if they look to resurrect ideas from the past to try to recreate some of those past conditions.

The only way recent trends will be permanent is if they actually result in a better society, and if there's one thing that people seem to agree on these days, it's that things are getting worse. Whatever emerges, it won't be the same as the ruling class today. Their days are dwindling as fast as their failures are mounting.

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Loren Christopher's avatar

I'm increasingly convinced this is all just Trump, and will end with him. Which should be pretty soon, as he's 77, losing a step, and in legal trouble.

He led a revolt of the Republican base against the Republican elite and was hugely successful, to the extent that the public brand of the party now entirely reflects the formerly neglected priorities of the base. Most educated professionals - me included - find those priorities extremely unpalatable, hence the realignment covered in the article.

But, it's going to be temporary. It's becoming increasingly clear that Trump is a one-off, as other politicians attempt to replicate his appeal and keep flopping. See the 22 midterms and the Desantis and Ramaswamy campaigns. Likewise, intellectual efforts to market the Trump base's priorities to the educated class are completely falling flat.

So what happens next is that Trump exits stage left, the base revolt gets bored and wanders off without its evidently irreplaceable frontman, and the former Republican elite's priorities creep back in. Those priorities - free markets, American strength in foreign policy, limited government and pro-business policy, etc. - are much more appealing to educated professionals. They will return to the party.

As evidence this will happen, consider the speaker of the house fracas. Even with Trump very much still on-stage, the revolt commanded fewer than half the votes in the house, couldn't even get their candidate nominated until third try (after McCarthy and Scalise) and then couldn't get him confirmed. When push comes to shove, they're already a minority within the party. When Trump goes, they go too.

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